Monday, June 21, 2010

Die Angst des Tormanns beim Elfmeter or The Goalie's Anxiety at the Penalty Kick ( Fine, but bizarre movie )

Only he can touch the ball with his hands; he is the only player confined in limited space and he's protected by the offside rule. Only for him applies: the less contact with the ball, the better. The lion's share of he's value is in his team's quality and skill. For him defense must start on the opponents half . If the ball reaches his 10 yard perimeter it's usually to late.

Goalkeeper, the one with the ugliest jersey on the field.

I'll try to explain quick and easy method of rating goalkeepers seasons. It can be used in retrospect on some lustrous and pictorial characters like Jose Luis Chilavert and Rene Higuita, and even further in the past. Maybe Peter Shilton or Lev Yashin, if we'd had data.

What is the point of the game? To score a goal and not to allow one. If you somehow allow a few, isn't it easier to digest 2 or 3 from Manchester United then from Portsmouth? Yes, it is. There is no excuse for a triplet from Pompey.
The easiest way is to rate the pain relatively to opponents table position. So...


                                      Goal conceded  X  Team's position  =  Goal stress value



Fewer goals from bottom feeders equals better defense, better goalkeeper, better team and better final rank.
This method can also show why some guys are a treasure and some... well, not so much.




Games painted in green are victories, yellow ones are draws, reds are losses. Games that are not in color are the games played by substitute goalkeepers. We count only goals allowed, multiply the number of goals with the number of team's position ( X 3 for Arsenal's goal, X 20 Portsmouth's ) and in the bottom line we get the sum of "pain points". Divide the points with number of games. Finally, we get the average value for the goals. Their "weight". In this case, smaller is better.  Plainly, on average, to score a goal against Petr Cech you have to play like Liverpool ( 7,32 points = 7th place team ). To score a goal against David James, play like Bolton, you'll be fine.
Unfortunately for Portsmouth, substitutes played only 13 games last year.


No comments:

Post a Comment