tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-78932088125669190112024-03-05T06:20:45.396-08:00waiting for the equalizerWhen everyone is thinking the same, no one is thinkingGoranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-62836991330074596462010-10-30T23:51:00.000-07:002010-10-31T00:02:20.519-07:00Virtual Euro league<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">This is an informal combo table of European top 20 teams before this weekends round. I could have waited until Monday but <a href="http://www.soccermetricsblog.com/">Howard's Pythagorean calculation</a>s wouldn't fit then. Anyway, after a quarter of the season best team in Europe is Chelsea and they are underachieving by 3 points. Money makes the world go round indeed. Click to enlarge.</div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggmlOBAZEzwjOZswD9qDVccO0mUYy-QZ-QVctohUg0gY4nvLgXwzztC_TRZjRtHlQonNV7STdMauAZFvztaj0VK2t6SuzXFDhvdwzo-hZRRS0PZCEuPKAGOJqo2iS9PFUtAL7ZPhfLDIo/s1600/table.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggmlOBAZEzwjOZswD9qDVccO0mUYy-QZ-QVctohUg0gY4nvLgXwzztC_TRZjRtHlQonNV7STdMauAZFvztaj0VK2t6SuzXFDhvdwzo-hZRRS0PZCEuPKAGOJqo2iS9PFUtAL7ZPhfLDIo/s640/table.png" width="640" /> </a></div><br />
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<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="en-US">Explanation </span><span lang="en-US"><b>PPG </b>–</span><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-weight: normal;"> points per game, </span></span><span lang="en-US"><b>Handicap</b></span><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-weight: normal;"> – goal difference per game, </span></span><span lang="en-US"><b>PPG +</b></span><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-weight: normal;"> - PPG adjusted for league strength according to UEFA rankings, </span></span><span lang="en-US"><b>H +</b></span><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-weight: normal;"> - handicap with same adjustment, </span></span><span lang="en-US"><b>HP +</b></span><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-weight: normal;"> - sum of adjusted PPG and Handicap, </span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Δ</b></span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">- </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">Howard's pythagorean estimation</span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Rest of the order is more or less as would be expected, except for these guys.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuykcUbgNTg8dZ0dKfrRPRjcKfMpDD88MKAxYe1i6Du6wMPva9lSDAL3hi9QVbbaw5-uqTXDfsEA9Bb76xwH8xMJk7cEEFcs_rJgDG0yoy4Edz43Ye6L4zaGJkcoeoYWFq2DMPAqLlhHs/s1600/wigan.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="20" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuykcUbgNTg8dZ0dKfrRPRjcKfMpDD88MKAxYe1i6Du6wMPva9lSDAL3hi9QVbbaw5-uqTXDfsEA9Bb76xwH8xMJk7cEEFcs_rJgDG0yoy4Edz43Ye6L4zaGJkcoeoYWFq2DMPAqLlhHs/s640/wigan.png" width="640" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Close to the bottom of the barrel as they should be, yet fighting tooth and nails. </div>Full standings for all top 5 leagues <a href="https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0BzabtRGEOPaPODJmYTIwMDQtOTZlMy00YmY3LWI4NTYtODRkMWI5M2Q4NjA3&hl=en">here</a>.<br />
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</div>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-34189234572693699222010-10-28T15:04:00.000-07:002010-10-28T22:30:59.336-07:00West Bromwich Albion Story<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Away from the bright lights of London, childish bargaining in Manchester or the blind alleys of Liverpool, a true feel good story is developing.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">It's about West Bromwich Albion.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhV7t7LJD9eOaKosNVy0BENSNGSldgqtExrKHhrBKdFSmSF5XOfnKkYGD6XywOoRlgrHTS8ONpf_he18F5kEQggG7nwicpx1FXFKcwp1fqmSjyucRJ4bNGamTPEWD5N8YKJGLbpnVI2R_U/s1600/West_Bromwich_Albion_team_1888.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhV7t7LJD9eOaKosNVy0BENSNGSldgqtExrKHhrBKdFSmSF5XOfnKkYGD6XywOoRlgrHTS8ONpf_he18F5kEQggG7nwicpx1FXFKcwp1fqmSjyucRJ4bNGamTPEWD5N8YKJGLbpnVI2R_U/s320/West_Bromwich_Albion_team_1888.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Well, not <span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: "arial", sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;">exactly</span></span> these guys. Younger ones.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">When you lay a bet against the spread on a football or a basketball match you calculate in the handicaps the bookie gave you for each team. So the concept of handicapping should be familiar. </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Goal difference is a telling statistic. You can not, in a long run, fake your ability to score. Or to defend yourself from it.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">When we calculate this ability as a goal margin per game ( handicap ) we get the numbers which show us that, for example, last season Chelsea was 1,87 goals favorite in each of their games. Manchester Utd was good for 1,57, Arsenal 1,11, Liverpool 0,68 and so on. Biggest underdog was Wigan with -1,11 goals per game. WBA 's number in this calculation is from their previous EPL season ( -0,82 ). That shouldn't be much off.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">And for the sake of better understanding, remember these two facts.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">First, the value of the victory in the EPL last season was 2,6 goals scored and </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Second, the best team has the easiest schedule for the season , by definition, since they don't have to play against themselves. </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">In other words, it's not that Chelsea really is a 1,87 goals ( almost a win ) favorite from the start, no. Add opponents value in the equation too. Against Manchester Utd they would be 1,87 – 1,57 = 0,3 goals favorite. And when we translate that for the season ( sum of all handicaps for each team equals 0 ) their strength of schedule was 0 – 1,87 = - 1,87 goals. A complimentary win. As if they needed one.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">And here is a table of what WBA has done so far.<br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy5iyXq1WatrIPIHUCOc4enpAPGJ-CTWy_9C7z0gtyHDHaQ30eHAC3aoVULiywYhiHTMQcyYs90MM8YQcjPxAt_uUT58hhGFKrrByaWtqiohDG-oQOcf5FlOH-gKkUY8SbMn4WHOegv1U/s1600/table+wba.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy5iyXq1WatrIPIHUCOc4enpAPGJ-CTWy_9C7z0gtyHDHaQ30eHAC3aoVULiywYhiHTMQcyYs90MM8YQcjPxAt_uUT58hhGFKrrByaWtqiohDG-oQOcf5FlOH-gKkUY8SbMn4WHOegv1U/s1600/table+wba.png" /> </a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">What we see in first row is that Chelsea was so heavy favorite in the opener that that was almost an automatic win. They scored six for the good measure. True goal difference (True GD) reduces/increases the number of goals conceded for the amount of handicap. And it shows that, all other things being equal ( I'm omitting home field advantage, form, injuries...), Baggies conceded 3 “real” goals. That was their only negative performance so far.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">So, what gives?</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Sum of the handicaps so far (blue number) show that they were 12 goals underdogs and that they successfully parred with 10 . Expressed in wins, they are nearly <b>4</b> wins above expectations. </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">All of this gets it's true shape in comparison with the second table. These are the teams that had positive goal difference per game ratio last season and their true handicap/strength of schedule in first 9 weeks of this season.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWUe0XhIIKUC30GI4Y8a0ybe0ZPmPQzjWX_jO6sSiyWz6YeZCdZHW9TGhjoLm3FW8INaCwBAMrEMjod8voas99lEsjSS9-wZutBcHTJOSMCO6KGt9JIy2v0klycwcOUxRxRokpaeBTvBU/s1600/table+other.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWUe0XhIIKUC30GI4Y8a0ybe0ZPmPQzjWX_jO6sSiyWz6YeZCdZHW9TGhjoLm3FW8INaCwBAMrEMjod8voas99lEsjSS9-wZutBcHTJOSMCO6KGt9JIy2v0klycwcOUxRxRokpaeBTvBU/s1600/table+other.png" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b>30</b> (thirty) goals difference in handicap between WBA and Chelsea so far.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Last column shows us how well each team played so far.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Is Manchester Utd under performing or what? That's a literal half-ass job.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Chelsea is at 22 % above expectation, Arsenal at 12%. Liverpool is already lost for the season, I'm afraid. Aston Villa's percentage is a consequence of the Newcastle game blunder. They are not that bad.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">And WBA is playing on the rocket fuel.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Is it sustainable? No, it's not. But when you over perform, you better do it in the thick of your schedule when it matters the most, and that is exactly what Di Matteo's squad is doing right now. With this stretch, they've probably secured their spot in Premiership for the next season. </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Go Baggies!</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSGZlC-sr8emlvtK0uktwfy8oCtBDh66nCvYJMDMm8nhkVNIEgxBCzgNB8Eto_68beDAIhcojal4VZEYAbxHSsqHlLQJATp0rH5d-f1ubZA6M5G8tq_SK3svLrLGCqYDNVJCgwmwBpuxE/s1600/0,,10366~9122860,00.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSGZlC-sr8emlvtK0uktwfy8oCtBDh66nCvYJMDMm8nhkVNIEgxBCzgNB8Eto_68beDAIhcojal4VZEYAbxHSsqHlLQJATp0rH5d-f1ubZA6M5G8tq_SK3svLrLGCqYDNVJCgwmwBpuxE/s320/0,,10366~9122860,00.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-61616159437918081932010-10-26T00:34:00.000-07:002010-10-26T00:34:30.575-07:00Goalkeepers after 9<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Well, it looks like the fog is lifting. Data are less and less skewed as time passes. Goalkeepers standings and defensive standings for teams after 9 weeks.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7tg054KUQAUe1ahBmMLvbCW5wzq0DVUucFYftPmdVDHic8eKoEP_-8czXTlOrUVIrmV84-7gp7qGFQv3zV-URJ0YKv3SG6GDjE3wcQeK1__sSjci8KJb-HaEaQALBkcxAN6U2_VmrM30/s1600/week+9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7tg054KUQAUe1ahBmMLvbCW5wzq0DVUucFYftPmdVDHic8eKoEP_-8czXTlOrUVIrmV84-7gp7qGFQv3zV-URJ0YKv3SG6GDjE3wcQeK1__sSjci8KJb-HaEaQALBkcxAN6U2_VmrM30/s400/week+9.png" width="400" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYhhsvNBkX0nrvZZbTPSw3GYy06pdkKMzTXs6TU3cgYk2t564mud97QdLhoMxoqiJk3GdLjTKTR_hAW5W13Df_WcLR_kmUgK1f3hk_53G3MNanwlU2n9dL6iia5wPFpIfrixIw2U0piQY/s1600/teams.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="278" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYhhsvNBkX0nrvZZbTPSw3GYy06pdkKMzTXs6TU3cgYk2t564mud97QdLhoMxoqiJk3GdLjTKTR_hAW5W13Df_WcLR_kmUgK1f3hk_53G3MNanwlU2n9dL6iia5wPFpIfrixIw2U0piQY/s320/teams.png" width="320" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">How about them Chelsea? Who cares. But WBA, Bolton and Wigan in top ten defenses and Liverpool, Manchester Utd and Aston Villa not. Cold winter is coming, cold indeed for some. I'll refrain from further comment until I look at the strength of schedule so far ( which will be the topic of my next post ) and some other things.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Short explanations: points are negative category, they represent opponents position on current form table X goals you conceded . Two goals from West Ham gets you 40 points, six pack from Chelsea gets you only 6 points. That red 22 for Aston Villa means that their defense has not reached Premier league level thus far since league has 20 teams and their opponent rank is 22. Not really fair but things will straighten themselves by the end of the season.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">New feature is OPS+, which is borrowed from baseball. In essence 100 is average and bigger is better. This is development, upgrade of and replacement for my previous descriptive stat ReV and includes ,along with basic goals and saves, replacement level performance, opponents adjustments, park factors, time on the pitch … In short, lot of relevant things. I kept the name same as it is in baseball for the sake of the name recognition. Meaning of the abbreviation is of course different. Soccer has no bases or bats. So OPS+ stands for, I don't know, Overall Player's Score Adjusted ( that's for the + sign ). Yes, I'm reaching here but look at it as an homage to sabermetrics.</div><br />
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</div>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-18752658140503134022010-10-10T06:57:00.000-07:002010-10-26T00:34:57.225-07:00Who won?I saw <a href="http://visualbaseball.wordpress.com/2010/10/09/twins-yankees-cashcloud/">this</a> and tried something similar. These are last year salaries.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs-f8x1PUgjdkQeIPB6zhS2NsulP6cNCmMroS5HSIbAGu0NkF8O1vzrwIrfRdNsF_TBf3C8jXkRXojSXYSfpQn2C5UxWnMAIplVUZba7ALA3V_AvMqxgBBC8SBJ4NJSIgQZHk775Bl9ss/s1600/Cash+Cloud+Premier.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs-f8x1PUgjdkQeIPB6zhS2NsulP6cNCmMroS5HSIbAGu0NkF8O1vzrwIrfRdNsF_TBf3C8jXkRXojSXYSfpQn2C5UxWnMAIplVUZba7ALA3V_AvMqxgBBC8SBJ4NJSIgQZHk775Bl9ss/s400/Cash+Cloud+Premier.png" width="400" /></a></div>As always click to enlarge.Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-79637636904033637452010-09-29T02:40:00.000-07:002010-09-29T02:40:23.805-07:00Losing it<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Just to add my 2 cents, since <a href="http://soccerbythenumbers.blogspot.com/2010/09/clean-sheets-and-wins-is-there.html">this</a> is related to something I've been working on.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">For the last four seasons in England's Premier league, clean sheet for both teams or the most unpopular score in soccer 0–0, was the final outcome in 8,8% of the time . </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">But fortunately for us spectators it's not an easy thing to achieve. In 91% of the cases someone scores.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">To survive through the 90 minutes unscratched ( scores like 1-0, 2 0, 0 1, 0-2 ... ) your chances are 35,3% for home, or 24,6% for away team.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">If your attacking capabilities averages to one goal per game ( result being your win or a tie: 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 ), your chances of losing that game are 69,6 % for home team, or 72% for away team.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">If your forwards know how to put the ball behind goalies back at least 2 times per game, you will loose in only 1,38% of the cases for home or 2,7% for away team.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">The ball is round and the grass is slippery, score in each half at least once and you are the champions my friend.</div>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-37492599810895841432010-09-15T11:37:00.000-07:002010-09-15T11:37:09.390-07:00Goalkeepers week 4Better late than never. Week four standings for EPL goalies, like in the previous <a href="http://waitingfortheequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/08/goalkeepers-of-england.html">post</a>, plus standings <span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="background-color: white;">for </span></span><span style="background-color: white;">save</span><span style="background-color: white;"> </span><span style="background-color: white;">rate per game. In the next few days team standings and some other stuff.</span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsocaJOg7gqmvv0Fuyd8B7AcW6uCYaU_lm1WiVZkYVU64mJbvlexZ-O-Fnnhzj_IU7KZrCF5H75qGu5S912vQK3YRFV-y7MuCijqXkoQAiG8AxJaorymk74aMUJP_IK9WwmxpQ_Dr5wWo/s1600/week+4.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="305" qx="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsocaJOg7gqmvv0Fuyd8B7AcW6uCYaU_lm1WiVZkYVU64mJbvlexZ-O-Fnnhzj_IU7KZrCF5H75qGu5S912vQK3YRFV-y7MuCijqXkoQAiG8AxJaorymk74aMUJP_IK9WwmxpQ_Dr5wWo/s400/week+4.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_sdyEVmCjKEcK8p0BbG3rLCBvaQhayO2KIg9rpSXwDWJ82yQV8_Y06Y6RByDysUKw0jMPkMIA5hP1lttamoKEgIsKMvrjfQYq52IVxMndH7sZpZi8riWEyboESroVfCmNtK8C3HcZAY0/s1600/week+4+SR.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="307" qx="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_sdyEVmCjKEcK8p0BbG3rLCBvaQhayO2KIg9rpSXwDWJ82yQV8_Y06Y6RByDysUKw0jMPkMIA5hP1lttamoKEgIsKMvrjfQYq52IVxMndH7sZpZi8riWEyboESroVfCmNtK8C3HcZAY0/s400/week+4+SR.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
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</div>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-55349542651325154222010-08-31T04:46:00.000-07:002010-08-31T04:46:41.643-07:00United European League<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Following the same line of thought as presented in the previous <a href="http://waitingfortheequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/08/goalkeepers-of-england.html">post</a>, I implemented the <a href="http://waitingfortheequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/06/die-angst-des-tormanns-beim-elfmeter.html">formula</a> on each team's defense and offense. In the case of offense I just reversed the order of standings so that, for example, goal from Chelsea carries <span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: red;">1</span> point for that team's defense ( negative points ), but goal against Chelsea carries <span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: lime;">20</span> points for offense since Chelsea equally well defends their goal as they tear up the net on opponent’s. As season proceeds I'll add other leagues. So far England and France, separate and combo. I wonder how the combo table will look at season's end?</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Data from <a href="http://www.leagueday.com/">http://www.leagueday.com/</a>. I've used form table for calculations, not regular table ( although they are same now, they will differ over time ).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIBJGadKZAG6DkSa_vEJs4Ga6pRcqFyojru-6nYBr64OuLZKb_fX-4x6i0bs0lEMVvAsM15QXJeC94AO-pies4mHoWp7kTRec9jw0IW0-7wACM_lr1RHqDHraRVyvqRHIG0-LiMRLG0N4/s1600/England+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIBJGadKZAG6DkSa_vEJs4Ga6pRcqFyojru-6nYBr64OuLZKb_fX-4x6i0bs0lEMVvAsM15QXJeC94AO-pies4mHoWp7kTRec9jw0IW0-7wACM_lr1RHqDHraRVyvqRHIG0-LiMRLG0N4/s400/England+1.png" width="400" /> </a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlwo2VnVKRyKaciYH3r6PiCaNeL72X3gPeW4cAFMmZey9KO2ifmsWyreSH7Ji8geqtO7f8EKvQ5FUgtY_BdschEdH_tRQqF7veW-IlhxzCU-w3xrtqNktYBfwX4TZNna6BOULoGj-DGP8/s1600/France+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlwo2VnVKRyKaciYH3r6PiCaNeL72X3gPeW4cAFMmZey9KO2ifmsWyreSH7Ji8geqtO7f8EKvQ5FUgtY_BdschEdH_tRQqF7veW-IlhxzCU-w3xrtqNktYBfwX4TZNna6BOULoGj-DGP8/s400/France+1.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
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</div>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-90275433605524005702010-08-31T02:57:00.000-07:002010-08-31T02:57:54.704-07:00Goalkeepers of England<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">It's time. After three weeks of Premier League soccer there is enough data to start with goalkeepers ranking as promised. According to <a href="http://waitingfortheequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/06/die-angst-des-tormanns-beim-elfmeter.html">formula</a>, current ranking looks like this:</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI9yxRhsJbNSB1tt6maKau0WuAGv0fIVw0Zi8dcv4p-9S4ZdGTlW7oIJq9oiYgjM0IV_tubog5SqmjPIh7Y-ks4N59xGkUjPg4I0sl1OmLJ7dVhnCYr_DWVkF4XMDpqa6xX2uWUFAqYcE/s1600/third+week.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI9yxRhsJbNSB1tt6maKau0WuAGv0fIVw0Zi8dcv4p-9S4ZdGTlW7oIJq9oiYgjM0IV_tubog5SqmjPIh7Y-ks4N59xGkUjPg4I0sl1OmLJ7dVhnCYr_DWVkF4XMDpqa6xX2uWUFAqYcE/s400/third+week.png" width="400" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-74772598011080280062010-08-20T13:53:00.000-07:002010-08-20T14:15:28.196-07:00Premier and Primera 2009/10Links for Google docs. Some stats are simplified, for practical reasons and are different than previously published but not by much. Correlations still hold. Everything is explained in the comments on top of the columns. Download and play. Previous seasons are coming, though further you go into the past, data becomes more and more doubtful.<br />
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Source, as always, <a href="http://soccernet.espn.go.com/?redirect=false&cc=5739">ESPNsoccernet</a><br />
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<a href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjabtRGEOPaPdHhhVU10dWh0NEdiQVltTV8tbTI5aHc&hl=en">EPL</a> and <a href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjabtRGEOPaPdDVhNG05NW5tT28xVmp6U0dGNnZLcFE&hl=en"> Primera</a>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-67961343525066006852010-08-17T12:19:00.000-07:002010-08-17T14:03:36.806-07:00Shearer and Wright<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">This time strikers. No special introduction needed. </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shearer">Alan Shearer</a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9PKHJ1UzHWneO3KOdWYKA70OYhEGYcy63K_RpCI7xTJKftG1lQULfFmt6hCkcG2QeQX4QoAyygvBFvZkdkui-NPiN8LZaxd8JUGXELDmZI-fd4apWtIZqy6WP6TTZRE0vbIu5HsL30VU/s1600/Shearer.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9PKHJ1UzHWneO3KOdWYKA70OYhEGYcy63K_RpCI7xTJKftG1lQULfFmt6hCkcG2QeQX4QoAyygvBFvZkdkui-NPiN8LZaxd8JUGXELDmZI-fd4apWtIZqy6WP6TTZRE0vbIu5HsL30VU/s640/Shearer.png" width="640" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Wright">Ian Wright</a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmdO8csoPtkwunTMIEll6zwlBYzzZbYrIaN_QQFAyFfGiZaR0ynQcy68UqwC4xgpFqUbuNZaapxdsnPvwV3A4w7Yq49KeBy9cDygAmeunO5fmEi_yc510bPxJSlbd4wjb1iSt081-mfkc/s1600/Wright.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmdO8csoPtkwunTMIEll6zwlBYzzZbYrIaN_QQFAyFfGiZaR0ynQcy68UqwC4xgpFqUbuNZaapxdsnPvwV3A4w7Yq49KeBy9cDygAmeunO5fmEi_yc510bPxJSlbd4wjb1iSt081-mfkc/s640/Wright.png" width="640" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">A little better team winning percentage and point rate for Wright because he played a few years on both ends of his career on lower competition level teams. Shearer, on the other hand, has advantage in career grade, win shares and relative value percentage ( average = 100 ). </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Wright had a late start of his career but his years as a Gunner were memorable. Shearer participated in Blackburn's historic run and greatness of Kevin Keegan's Newcastle United. These teams, along with Liverpool's youth movement ( McManaman, Fowler ) and post-Cantona-incident Manchester United were prolific, fast and extremely fun to watch.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Their careers according to age. Significant head start for Shearer.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDD5ehAxnbw8LlPe8TLRob7KkOAmp884BaaTtK9Hs45STkvDT08ovzoEamTRjdt-dCnZ_c9M2_eYry9_vbTIZ0TyIZsOPN5_aiAmkXhVm1v1dhyQ0JUjb7d1VQsODqhnF49HKsP6I3m1g/s1600/graph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDD5ehAxnbw8LlPe8TLRob7KkOAmp884BaaTtK9Hs45STkvDT08ovzoEamTRjdt-dCnZ_c9M2_eYry9_vbTIZ0TyIZsOPN5_aiAmkXhVm1v1dhyQ0JUjb7d1VQsODqhnF49HKsP6I3m1g/s640/graph.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
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</span></span></span></span></span></div>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-13995847945130248982010-08-15T11:15:00.000-07:002010-08-15T13:55:12.059-07:00Zizu and Becks<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: "Arial"; font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px;"><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Time to start with </span><a href="http://waitingfortheequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/08/last-step-in-finalizing-our-new.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">comparisons</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> now that I </span><a href="http://waitingfortheequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/06/lets-begin.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">have</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span><a href="http://waitingfortheequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/08/defense.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">the</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span><a href="http://waitingfortheequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/08/attackattack-and-then-again-attack-some.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">tools</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">. I've decided to start with </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_100"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Pele's or FIFA's list</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> since it is as good starting point as any.</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br />
</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2VFkTIFLGHK33PUCuXljzLbK38nKX5t1S3NGb3Nr9OiBXDJHYHJJXegJxLqhDAcc4ZK0bUriuICMNctEsrC6I1DSSRxdwxEGuuB60Foa-aO75cF7srs2uTF1NScuBV1ibhJt7PAcPxXA/s1600/legenda.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2VFkTIFLGHK33PUCuXljzLbK38nKX5t1S3NGb3Nr9OiBXDJHYHJJXegJxLqhDAcc4ZK0bUriuICMNctEsrC6I1DSSRxdwxEGuuB60Foa-aO75cF7srs2uTF1NScuBV1ibhJt7PAcPxXA/s1600/legenda.png" /></span></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Each table will contain some obvious items: </span><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Goals</span></b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">, </span><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Appearances</span></b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">, </span><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Age</span></b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> and </span><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Team</span></b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> or teams for which player suited up that year.</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Percentage of wins</span></b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> is one of two team statistics and refers to a percent of the games team won that season. Other team stat is </span><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Points rate </span></b><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">or</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> how much points, on average, team gained per game ( 0 – 3 ).</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">I'm using these two stats to describe the relative strength / weakness of a team for that particular season so that player's performance numbers wouldn't be out of context.</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br />
</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDxdz_CEQ_8iK2Uv_okycQDxiHviEDFVD036PmFng8nn0VNpsEy8RamRgtv8PzXqXlUqkwO-f0M9dg9MZFVIqykctFrUev_d5uJj5qzTmskGEAde-MJ7Iw_GgJe-l1nDcI_Fd_YkpdsQY/s1600/heat+chart.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDxdz_CEQ_8iK2Uv_okycQDxiHviEDFVD036PmFng8nn0VNpsEy8RamRgtv8PzXqXlUqkwO-f0M9dg9MZFVIqykctFrUev_d5uJj5qzTmskGEAde-MJ7Iw_GgJe-l1nDcI_Fd_YkpdsQY/s1600/heat+chart.png" /></span></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Individual stats are: </span><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Grade</span></b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ( there's a heat chart for help ) tweaked a little to fit everyone equally, </span><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Win Shares</span></b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ( number of points per season that player earned ) and </span><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">RVP</span></b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ( ReV ) or player's relative value for that season compared to his peers, in percents, where 100 is average performance.</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Below the line are the career numbers or up to date achievements.</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Let's roll.</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br />
</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zinedine_Zidane"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Zinedine Zidane</span></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br />
</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWBleZ0V3F-lTXPetbrB3AKFaWP7_ySQYGO9pwzO8xQsp5hTIejKi1e7E-kXq86S52IY1U2limp_zHUq8y3OVAeKtJq8VyUPRUUNuwy1pU2_QUJpscqNLs_bx4vwt2n80OM4VYv8dz3Kk/s1600/zi+zu+table.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" height="315" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWBleZ0V3F-lTXPetbrB3AKFaWP7_ySQYGO9pwzO8xQsp5hTIejKi1e7E-kXq86S52IY1U2limp_zHUq8y3OVAeKtJq8VyUPRUUNuwy1pU2_QUJpscqNLs_bx4vwt2n80OM4VYv8dz3Kk/s640/zi+zu+table.png" width="640" /></span></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br />
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</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Beckham"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">David Beckham</span></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br />
</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHpXQ9CKHeSy8rKt0u9d0skt7RAdGIDX95lYG3qh0nFj02Rs7hihfkOfcPrCOYC8TSkUaBtRShx5dKBpU6MVwiJLhZKqBmamLB3FE1hu_F8YKa5GskKZJ6pw0we__z55p6tyPKqRazIsg/s1600/bex+table.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" height="315" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHpXQ9CKHeSy8rKt0u9d0skt7RAdGIDX95lYG3qh0nFj02Rs7hihfkOfcPrCOYC8TSkUaBtRShx5dKBpU6MVwiJLhZKqBmamLB3FE1hu_F8YKa5GskKZJ6pw0we__z55p6tyPKqRazIsg/s640/bex+table.png" width="640" /></span></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br />
</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">And totally random soccer player only for the sake of establishing the base line:</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br />
</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Gibbs">Nigel Gibbs</a></span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFnVfkYcy9TK6v_9A3_yPCS8acdw1e5Bv_BXoijDPwD7OG1O9xjLH56hFVt4G1mW0CtPbJ6YteqyzLjfABK5Mkrh79YOdI4PRUD65RS3cnswjsJ6qDeomQar0wFIqdTX-FY4qWHoDrVDU/s1600/gibbs+table.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFnVfkYcy9TK6v_9A3_yPCS8acdw1e5Bv_BXoijDPwD7OG1O9xjLH56hFVt4G1mW0CtPbJ6YteqyzLjfABK5Mkrh79YOdI4PRUD65RS3cnswjsJ6qDeomQar0wFIqdTX-FY4qWHoDrVDU/s640/gibbs+table.png" width="640" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Actually I was quite surprised to see that Becks is better than Zizu was. But blame it on the luck, late serious career start and early retirement. And don't forget that Zizu did it in the span of, really only ten years. </span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Notice also the span in teams statistics for these three guys. Almost the same between them.</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Teams for which Beckham played were roughly 10 % better at winning and 0,3 points better per game than teams Zidane played ( that Galaxy gig killed the numbers ). Again, roughly the same ratio applies to ZIdane and Gibbs.</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Here is what their careers look charted.</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br />
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</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYY0g7Np0usHj3lyQCkF8yYlZUqTmv_vTc_2lzLpsC-3uZ9pIEzmb3KLjfs0hX1PVdA73xpRtzWYtvhQlbievWnps6aA9CPCnA_knw-cO2alzLWSkxlQqK3QKpqINfz8PQrCNm7DJg64c/s1600/chart.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYY0g7Np0usHj3lyQCkF8yYlZUqTmv_vTc_2lzLpsC-3uZ9pIEzmb3KLjfs0hX1PVdA73xpRtzWYtvhQlbievWnps6aA9CPCnA_knw-cO2alzLWSkxlQqK3QKpqINfz8PQrCNm7DJg64c/s640/chart.png" width="640" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br />
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</span></div></span></span>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-77390058838078468242010-08-11T14:58:00.000-07:002010-08-17T09:08:03.839-07:00Last step<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Last step in finalizing our new statistic is merging <a href="http://waitingfortheequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/08/attackattack-and-then-again-attack-some.html">offense</a> and <a href="http://waitingfortheequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/08/defense.html">defense</a> numbers in some meaningful way. Simplest way is to add <b>PPG</b> to <b>D</b>, adjusted with accuracy <b>Ac</b>. What we get is an aggregate number <b>AG</b> that represents individual player's input in team's defensive performance ( through saves and goals conceded ratio ), discipline and speed ( fouls committed ) mixed with offensive contribution ( goals and assists ), all calculated on per game basis.<br />
Now, that was a mouthful... For a single player :</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE1JbK3KjcsXbumQtpw2NPu6w9XPhkptYe8y4etZsXagjjLoyfrCwwAI1A7HfEcG0bVUXCh-EKp1oKCpM3wItTQu-gQR-ox0Dxt-xSCu-UsSDdWZ03R5p-LfyFoBlczipx6zKiOeK-DRQ/s1600/fabregas.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="32" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE1JbK3KjcsXbumQtpw2NPu6w9XPhkptYe8y4etZsXagjjLoyfrCwwAI1A7HfEcG0bVUXCh-EKp1oKCpM3wItTQu-gQR-ox0Dxt-xSCu-UsSDdWZ03R5p-LfyFoBlczipx6zKiOeK-DRQ/s640/fabregas.png" width="640" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT-2Q6wLbGR1LMZQq04zFkSTNN467f0PMXA9pEjlSfMKI-G4ur25DUXjiPPdCubJGje-95RY6GafCWClksM8VW13G67F5iaEfTDVF-KJyzjOi8uKZTc-VVF7ZHVAQtlFdJnoPbOma4er0/s1600/tabela.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT-2Q6wLbGR1LMZQq04zFkSTNN467f0PMXA9pEjlSfMKI-G4ur25DUXjiPPdCubJGje-95RY6GafCWClksM8VW13G67F5iaEfTDVF-KJyzjOi8uKZTc-VVF7ZHVAQtlFdJnoPbOma4er0/s200/tabela.png" width="300" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
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<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">That composite number <b>AG</b> can be a standalone index. But it's not that intuitive and comparable, right? </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Next step is to calculate <b>D</b> and <b>AG</b> numbers for the entire league, calculate their average or median, which ever works better ( median ), and finally calculate deviation for each player from that average/median and express the number as percentage.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">I know I've lost you by now, but if you are still with me, I promise, no more math. What have we achieved with all this ?</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Now we have both intuitive and comparable WYSIWYG stat. Something like OPS in baseball. In this case, the “sea level” is at 100, both for <b>D% </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">and </span><b>ReV </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">( player's defense</span> relative to league average and player's overall, both defensive and offensive value, relative to league average ).</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"> You can go scuba diving ( numbers can go below 100 for sub par achievements ) or you can go free climbing like the guy above. His defensive value was 48% better than league average last season and his overall value was three times higher then your average Placeholder Jones or Warm Body Smith. As simple as that.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Hidden benefit of this stat is that it is average of anything you want to put in the calculation. If you want to improve <b>ReV</b> by adding , for example passing stats, it can be done without disturbing the essence .Sea level would still be at 100 and all previous comparisons would still hold. Computations can be more precise, but the value ratio and validity of comparisons between players will remain the same. </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">As soon as I finish beautification process, I'll post the spreadsheets for EPL.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">And now, the grand finale! </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b>ReV </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">can be used for historic comparisons too. I've threw few hundred numbers into a cruncher to see how </span><b>ReV</b><span style="font-weight: normal;"> relates to previous methods I've used for players evaluation ( </span><b><a href="http://waitingfortheequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/06/lets-begin.html">Grade</a> </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">).</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><br />
</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;">Well, picture speaks a thousand words.</div><div lang="en-US" style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjupT5lDNF9VjhWY3W4LGCZAfWaTLDm_Uvo3peu0yL-7Xn3GRV7G_LnK3sRtUBrQ8v80o1aap8aI119PyHMt9LKEbjkMRRMsA7qqG3OuojgHTcnaBYTKpDbGc6K91TFbDbUYTXFVyDbBdU/s1600/scatter.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjupT5lDNF9VjhWY3W4LGCZAfWaTLDm_Uvo3peu0yL-7Xn3GRV7G_LnK3sRtUBrQ8v80o1aap8aI119PyHMt9LKEbjkMRRMsA7qqG3OuojgHTcnaBYTKpDbGc6K91TFbDbUYTXFVyDbBdU/s400/scatter.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">This is encouraging. Methods are interchangeable. This means that it's possible to compare players from different eras, with different sets of data used for their evaluation, with statistically significant level of correlation.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">What remains now, is to enjoy the soccer by simply watching it. </div><br />
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</div>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-34159408601450971822010-08-10T00:32:00.000-07:002010-08-10T00:32:35.735-07:00Attack,attack and then again attack some more<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Offense is much simpler than defense. There are only two offensive categories that we really care about. Goals and assists. First, we double the points for scoring i.e. 2:1 ratio for goals to assists, then we divide the sum of those two with the number of games played. That gives us number of points per game. That's it. Nothing else. That's offense. </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGtnDrBZS-_l49DiZs4iuVbVKTAwkpH1d8QUNawWY3rXM-8OZfivVpZRbNZ9e9tbRvcW01Luhp4exWvJ603p_S6Ja4Upsq8bFkSjTu_hEb9jCNXgqcEDS1zZftpa0khDDOITZ43Nb2Zps/s1600/PPG+formula.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGtnDrBZS-_l49DiZs4iuVbVKTAwkpH1d8QUNawWY3rXM-8OZfivVpZRbNZ9e9tbRvcW01Luhp4exWvJ603p_S6Ja4Upsq8bFkSjTu_hEb9jCNXgqcEDS1zZftpa0khDDOITZ43Nb2Zps/s1600/PPG+formula.png" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
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</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Where <b>PPG </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">stands for points per game</span>, <b>G</b> stands for goals, <b>A</b> for assists, <b>GS </b>for games started, <b>SB</b> for substitution. Substitution games are divided by 2 because of Kevin Phillips. No really, if you are successful “pinch hitter” ( shooter/scorer in this case ) in the vein of Roger Milla or Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, you have to be rewarded a little.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">This statistic can be used alone, but that would be a little dry. Let's consider something else. How accurate is player's kick? Does he waste a lot of opportunities or his balls have eyes? Does he bend like Beckham?</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Call it the Accuracy percentage. The <b>SH </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">stands for shots in general, not to be confused with shots on goal.</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirML6sLdF96dREK49lL2kFp5Vl-Zja2xfrrG-IrGWLgHTn1aVAjz0ecwnaTL3Lvf6XIUyiarnA53UGHydAS_dMMqDWbq7QQtG3WhpJlkcB_HVlmBnh3PHXeGNnD-ZNg6d8CmeEZMH3jng/s1600/Ac+formula.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirML6sLdF96dREK49lL2kFp5Vl-Zja2xfrrG-IrGWLgHTn1aVAjz0ecwnaTL3Lvf6XIUyiarnA53UGHydAS_dMMqDWbq7QQtG3WhpJlkcB_HVlmBnh3PHXeGNnD-ZNg6d8CmeEZMH3jng/s1600/Ac+formula.png" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">To demonstrate; selected few from last season EPL :</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYWnslPtW94UBVyPFkRmvw60Y1GKi1437SFaWAw7V7B4NKXytdOfh6gpy3XB37CyhPq49vbg0OGVkNupIYqYL6ZXTrHF5d80KpWehehRy-U0k7iXKB3b04fvhYjICWAS_T5kFaZDsc41M/s1600/aC+PPG+tabela.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="302" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYWnslPtW94UBVyPFkRmvw60Y1GKi1437SFaWAw7V7B4NKXytdOfh6gpy3XB37CyhPq49vbg0OGVkNupIYqYL6ZXTrHF5d80KpWehehRy-U0k7iXKB3b04fvhYjICWAS_T5kFaZDsc41M/s400/aC+PPG+tabela.png" width="400" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"> </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Can you spot two defensive players in there? </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b>Ac</b> is written in American style percentage format. Drogba's 0,219 translates to 21,9 % shooting precision. <b>PPG</b> is what it looks like. Drogba again; 2,159 translates in 1 goal or 2 assists per game for the 2009/10 season. Scary.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Data from <a href="http://soccernet.espn.go.com/stats/division?league=eng.1&year=2009&seasontype=1&cc=5739">ESPNsoccernet</a></div><br />
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</div>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-63595613514652196462010-08-08T10:54:00.000-07:002010-08-17T21:59:05.544-07:00Defense<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Before I begin I'll say a few words about the state of soccer statistics today. </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Not long ago we didn't have any. Today we have it in amounts that are overwhelming. Just visit FIFA's World Cup page.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">We are beginning to hoard more and more data. These are all valid data but fragmentation is great problem for grasping the big picture. There are some indexes that can help, like Castrol Index and alike but the problem with them is that they are not intuitive. For example, Frank Lampard has 776 index points for last season on the official EPL <a href="http://www.premierleague.com/page/PlayerPerformanceIndex/0,,12306,00.html">site</a>. On <a href="http://www.castrolfootball.com/rankings/rankings/">Castrol</a> he has 845 and is 4th in his league.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Meaning? </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">What is the lowest possible number? What is the highest possible number? Can the values be negative...? Questions that can not be answered off-hand. </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Higher is better but in comparison to what “natural” measure ( percentage, scale with upper and lower limit, some zero point...)? </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">You get the picture. Not very intuitive. So, read the raw data instead, some might say...</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Too much data can have the same effect. We still remain clueless. Example, until this World Cup we never had passing data in our statistic sheets, at least in Europe we didn't. Now?<br />
As I said, FIFA's stat page. Dive in.<br />
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</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="en-US"> </span><a href="http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/statistics/players/passes.html">http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/statistics/players/passes.html</a><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Enough rambling. My attempt <a href="http://waitingfortheequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/06/lets-begin.html">with win shares and points</a> is little more intuitive but emanate from a small set of data. For the historic purposes it's OK. For the future, why not use everything that we can? But since this enterprise of ours have for target audience a common fan, my aims for synthetic soccer statistics I'm developing are for them to be:</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><b> Intuitive </b> and <b>Comparable</b><br />
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</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">On the foundation of previous <a href="http://waitingfortheequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/08/saves-and-goals.html">post</a> about saves, I'll try to build a gauge that can capture the soccer defense.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">If we add the number of saves to goals conceded during the season, we come up with the number of times the defense collapsed and allowed the opposing strikers to take their shots. Obviously, the lower number of collapses equals better defense. Until I come up with the better name, let's call it the average number of negative events per game. Catchy, right? Here is the table for last EPL season:</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn5UfE8ywcmNNHt4gsmCa93_VWw_4rBl6mFR6s9dyuk6lDMWngMJXCrlSkBnMxOmgNlOnffmK0i_8Sv5nf1r8ZwCFXvYCPJgBI-Fy9jw984wtKWy2F9fDicjqhJX9CxouKv0ODFtE_wtc/s1600/negatives+per+game.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn5UfE8ywcmNNHt4gsmCa93_VWw_4rBl6mFR6s9dyuk6lDMWngMJXCrlSkBnMxOmgNlOnffmK0i_8Sv5nf1r8ZwCFXvYCPJgBI-Fy9jw984wtKWy2F9fDicjqhJX9CxouKv0ODFtE_wtc/s400/negatives+per+game.png" width="231" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Or like this; strength of defenses in England’s Premier League for 2009/10 season</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDamggkRTQfIgBs3fUEd7uvjvjcg-rgu1snW-WftlbFoCpT45-b-ypsg91fN5G4ohCAu7kLokutm6R77Oc-jWrWGgfSYNuNEaIzKV8zDMinSwAp41Ks2Lu7s1t63IjK-4-0SfwNHO1jps/s1600/negatives+bars.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="355" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDamggkRTQfIgBs3fUEd7uvjvjcg-rgu1snW-WftlbFoCpT45-b-ypsg91fN5G4ohCAu7kLokutm6R77Oc-jWrWGgfSYNuNEaIzKV8zDMinSwAp41Ks2Lu7s1t63IjK-4-0SfwNHO1jps/s640/negatives+bars.png" width="640" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">One other thing that indicate better defense is lower average number of fouls committed. Roughly speaking, in the case of EPL ,teams in lower part of the above graph tends to commit larger number of fouls, since their defenses are slower in reacting and positioning. There are exceptions of course, some teams have that style of play, some teams have better goalkeepers, other teams gave up trying, hence the lower number of fouls then expected. But to be on top, after the smoke clears, you need to be nice to your opponents. That's why they invented the fair play to begin with. Here is the last season order:</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYfCzZ7QCs4vidsNAuZsHuSwr8XkkttBBuRy3_0LuW_JVduydyREmqyxtwWpjQREz2gWywfUAMBDi54y-O6gDwwAB34_5FoLruOk-MVtG-WHbKaiHE3-n82nLNI-nQOt0W7J4KX3Lu9Sw/s1600/foul+per+g.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYfCzZ7QCs4vidsNAuZsHuSwr8XkkttBBuRy3_0LuW_JVduydyREmqyxtwWpjQREz2gWywfUAMBDi54y-O6gDwwAB34_5FoLruOk-MVtG-WHbKaiHE3-n82nLNI-nQOt0W7J4KX3Lu9Sw/s400/foul+per+g.png" width="231" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Finally, combo of these two rates, in my opinion, can give somewhat accurate measure to individual defensive quality. I have excluded cards and penalty kicks since they are rare and dependent on circumstances.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">On the other hand, over the span of a season we accumulate enough numbers for saves, goals and fouls to give us some level of certainty in trends that we observe.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">And here is the formula; <b>D</b> stands for defense, <b>FC/G</b> for individual foul rate per game, <b>N/G</b> ( or <b>NEG/G,</b> the program for writing formulas has an issue with NEG so I can not write it in the formula, but you'll understand it anyway ) team's sum of saves and goals conceded per game. Other mathematical operations are for cosmetic purposes only. Calculated like this, <b>D</b> number looks like a percent, goes upwards to indicate better performance and irons the wrinkles that occur in the cases of small sample size.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_-KHrYsE_Vo6-KUB_Gm-ZE0tMGM-rbibCSzrUdPAnmrA2EXb6PxOZEoRSrD-4FWD0bjtE5KQLbLakBTP_R0jVv3ZKofx4ToermURGtlC7wRRmohyphenhyphen0m-J8PGwCahH2lmRV9ERG-_09q3I/s1600/formula.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="42" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_-KHrYsE_Vo6-KUB_Gm-ZE0tMGM-rbibCSzrUdPAnmrA2EXb6PxOZEoRSrD-4FWD0bjtE5KQLbLakBTP_R0jVv3ZKofx4ToermURGtlC7wRRmohyphenhyphen0m-J8PGwCahH2lmRV9ERG-_09q3I/s200/formula.png" width="200" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Math can be scary so let's visualize. Here are some gentlemen from EPL' s last season in no particular order ( median, on the bottom of the table, in this case works better than the average because of the big gap between the elite and average teams ); reds are below the league median:</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP_LZ1lWs0FPjDeFm-oRKvJQJpBfXdvsyT94fVE0fre7LBBjwMSeNJCNUlZTnXNwt2iaU32LZlTfY5gU5MBQR1P30oaq726RNUuIoAUGXlsZF-Qm6tqD5X_vFu_-4JfA6dr8a1s6MJkhM/s1600/def+table.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgP_LZ1lWs0FPjDeFm-oRKvJQJpBfXdvsyT94fVE0fre7LBBjwMSeNJCNUlZTnXNwt2iaU32LZlTfY5gU5MBQR1P30oaq726RNUuIoAUGXlsZF-Qm6tqD5X_vFu_-4JfA6dr8a1s6MJkhM/s640/def+table.png" width="340" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Enough for today. That's defense. Next time offense. Data, as always, from <a href="http://soccernet.espn.go.com/stats/division?league=eng.1&year=2009&cc=5739">ESPNsoccernet</a>.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-75284387449509756312010-08-08T01:54:00.000-07:002010-08-08T05:16:04.537-07:00Saves and Goals<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">After a long summer break I'm back. Since the soccer seasons are about to start in Europe, it's time to get back to stats. For upcoming season I'll follow a few new stats that I came up with this summer. We'll start with goalkeepers. Along with the stats I've explained <a href="http://waitingfortheequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/06/die-angst-des-tormanns-beim-elfmeter.html">here</a> ( and from now on it will be updated weekly, so the current forms of opponents will be taken in consideration; thank you <a href="http://www.soccermetricsblog.com/">Howard</a> ),I'll monitor saves to goals ratio. It's simple enough statistic; just divide saves with goals conceded. And to give you the coordinates: higher the rate, the better. Here are the standings for EPL 2009/10; <b>GS</b> stands for games started, <b>SV</b> for saves and <b>GC</b> for goals conceded. Rate numbers in bold are starters numbers and they are colored, as you can guess, in traffic light fashion (data from <a href="http://soccernet.espn.go.com/stats/division?league=eng.1&year=2009&seasontype=1&cc=5739">ESPNSoccernet</a> ):</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8TFHEAliZl6H5m5BZQuHWb7KKpIIvTREVsm6iKWzAbUh-ZuJDQsA0vR1ms3F2aU48XMPBglbW4RQWcuQul47cryJgNBi9GH7PTkj9Ehobr57Yv77Am3yQ4HpZF12BK35NSDOfbDh-BMQ/s1600/goalies+9-10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8TFHEAliZl6H5m5BZQuHWb7KKpIIvTREVsm6iKWzAbUh-ZuJDQsA0vR1ms3F2aU48XMPBglbW4RQWcuQul47cryJgNBi9GH7PTkj9Ehobr57Yv77Am3yQ4HpZF12BK35NSDOfbDh-BMQ/s640/goalies+9-10.png" width="552" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Or like this, just starters:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj28TVM2JRIpZYD6xoRzPzy4aGEG85ADivcWfd8tDR1LU3WtVqfZQHTMfZK6SNKXNKAyktU8Lf0q1ls0j__f1CTslpG7CH9MMiTe25vYLi4xqrqvvMMR0uTs8q86k_C25Fond4BMorU6Ew/s1600/goalies+bars.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj28TVM2JRIpZYD6xoRzPzy4aGEG85ADivcWfd8tDR1LU3WtVqfZQHTMfZK6SNKXNKAyktU8Lf0q1ls0j__f1CTslpG7CH9MMiTe25vYLi4xqrqvvMMR0uTs8q86k_C25Fond4BMorU6Ew/s640/goalies+bars.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
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</div>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-23704135842355873562010-07-05T09:41:00.000-07:002010-07-05T10:34:37.576-07:00Diego in EuropeAddendum to previous <a href="http://waitingfortheequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/07/hand-of-god-and-god-himself.html">post</a>. Maradona's numbers in European teams. Only regular league appearances, no cup games. On the left are Diego's statistics ( darker fields in win and draw columns are approximations ), on the right team's numbers.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtB1eq00CTHBCuAQ97DffqHxKe7GQcXSTMhXLpEt-IWEg4QDwsvhHFXLlv6IZJEcgteZoKArHl7nVMf-ARMu9jSTL1B3AKMJ2g_hWz-KeoaFayrsRAu7rwA_YMeBx38UUDweDaNeas3AA/s1600/diego+in+europe.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtB1eq00CTHBCuAQ97DffqHxKe7GQcXSTMhXLpEt-IWEg4QDwsvhHFXLlv6IZJEcgteZoKArHl7nVMf-ARMu9jSTL1B3AKMJ2g_hWz-KeoaFayrsRAu7rwA_YMeBx38UUDweDaNeas3AA/s640/diego+in+europe.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-7457105000093388692010-07-05T03:52:00.000-07:002010-08-17T09:08:47.643-07:00Leo<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">That was only one game. Dont worry, you are GOOD.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Points are the mix of goals, wins, draws, red cards, shutouts and blowouts, as <a href="http://waitingfortheequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/06/lets-begin.html">explained</a>.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Win shares are number of team points directly produced by the player. 3 WS points = one win contributed. Percentages are the same thing but expressed as % of team's final points count.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Minimum grade is 0 points, theoretical maximum is 5. To get you a sense of perspective, Pele's best season was 4,39.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Anyway, Lionel Messi's career in Barcelona so far:</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-18927620547715331802010-07-05T03:15:00.000-07:002010-08-17T09:11:26.915-07:00England's other goalkeepers<div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">As expl<span lang="en-US">ained <a href="http://waitingfortheequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/06/die-angst-des-tormanns-beim-elfmeter.html">here</a>. You can find David James there too.</span></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="en-US"><br />
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</span></div>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-45140347926476693832010-07-05T02:39:00.000-07:002010-07-05T10:45:14.274-07:00Hand of God and God himself<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">A few words.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Calculations were done as explained <a href="http://waitingfortheequalizer.blogspot.com/2010/06/lets-begin.html">here</a>. In short, goals, wins, draws,shutouts on the positive side; games lost without scoring a goal on negative. All that divided by number of games played.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Only regular national championship matches, no all star games, no cup games, no national squad games, no Puerto Rico 12:0 blowouts.. Only meaningful games played with balanced competition.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span lang="en-US">Pele's statistics are perfect. Every game, every goal, every squad. So, calculations for his career are as good as they can get. Spreadsheet can be found <a href="http://pele.m-qp-m.us/english/pele_statistics.shtml">here</a>. Though, keep in mind that soccer was a different game then. Substitutions were rare if even allowed, games were played all year round, Brazil didn't have unified league, so results are from the state of Sao Paolo league (Campeonato Paulista</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"> </span></span></span></span></span><span lang="en-US">)...</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Maradona's statistics are accurate for his Spain and Italian career, not so much for Argentinian part. But when in doubt, err on the side of the player. If I was biased in my approximations, I was biased in favor of Diego. Future exact calculations for the Argentinian part of his career ( when data will be available ) will not stray much from these. He was what he was. A wasted talent. So great, but so immature.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">The graphics are straightforward: middle column represent age, years are colored in accordance with achievements for that year; squads in witch they played are next and calculated grade for that year on the outside columns. </div><br />
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">They both had same career span, started and finished them at same age, played same position and wore the same number.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Here they are:</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-86497153594408452732010-07-04T03:47:00.000-07:002010-07-05T04:24:05.323-07:00Pythagorean formula for soccer, the European one<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">As we have learned during this edition of World Cup, predicting the outcome of the single soccer match is hard. But, that's the excitement of once in a four year tournament.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">In our regular, every day soccer, we have a little larger set of data to play with. The simplest method used in other popular sports, Bill James's Pythagorean formula, is not really accurate in soccer. There are attempts to tweak the formula by changing exponents as it was done for basketball, but swings of fortunes, in relatively short seasons are common and you have to deal with three possible outcomes on top of that.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">So, let's tilt at the windmill again.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Few observations first. The main difference between soccer and pretty much any other sport is possibility of a draw. Since all win estimator formulas work on the principle of a clean cut winner, usual straightforward relation between runs/goals/points scored and the number of victories, falls short in the case of soccer. Usual way to compensate this is by counting points won, not victories.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">In the Premier league or any other elite league with ,more or less, just dispersion of talent among teams, tie games deduct around 8 % of the maximum points per season. For EPL it's 20 teams, 380 games and 1140 points to distribute. Usually around 100 points are lost every year. If it's a win, then it's a three point game; if it's a draw, it's only two point game then. In a tie game both teams win and lose the same amount of points.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Let's start with simplified Pythagorean formula with exponent 1 and see how it plays out.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"> <strong>Win % = ( goals scored / goals scored + goals allowed ) <span style="color: magenta;">X 0,92</span></strong></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Calculation is for last year's champions Chelsea with 8 % deduction. For 2009/10 season it's exactly 8,42% </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">GF = 103</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">GA = 32</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Win % = 0,699 ( or 69,9 % of possible points won )</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Multiply Win % with maximum amount of points for a single team.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Win % X 114 ( for 20 club league; for Bundes league it's 102 )</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">In the end, we get 80 points for Chelsea. They won actually 86, but you would expect it for first place team to outperform expectations. </div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeLFEN-SE4NnRfgBfQzPgCgFWO1jt3EmfkGRAq-YXXyiZm9-h9RDcxExWkzudos37WkmlYEH65QxLHS7HXlxRc3dO-GRLcmSzTGwZwh3ikchym74YieZ0mtZQ32IMoviB3X4O0jnhzYb8/s1600/england+2010+bolja.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeLFEN-SE4NnRfgBfQzPgCgFWO1jt3EmfkGRAq-YXXyiZm9-h9RDcxExWkzudos37WkmlYEH65QxLHS7HXlxRc3dO-GRLcmSzTGwZwh3ikchym74YieZ0mtZQ32IMoviB3X4O0jnhzYb8/s640/england+2010+bolja.png" width="640" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">That is ,of course, 20/20 hindsight.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">And now the future.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Calculations were done taking in account last three seasons ( weighted 60/30/10 ). Some numbers, yellowish ones, are averages or estimations for Championship or any other lower league. Results from the Championship are simply reduced by about 1/3 ( 2/5 to be precise, assumption is that Championship is 60 % the strength of the Premier League ). Same goes for other lower leagues. After we calculate PP ( predicted points ), we adjust them with three year average of over/under performance ( for example, in last three seasons Everton overachieved by 2 points and Fulam underachieved by 3 ). In the end we have adjusted points and predicted ranking of teams in accordance.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">As things are today; with no knowledge of starting lineups, amount of money poured into clubs, injuries, bad/good shape of key players.... Here are predictions for the final standings of England Premier League for 2010/11 season.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFjKcBhnLolpPFIj_Zk6Mf7VZykkosCMk4xyxGVCm-lVT5pN3lvHfKGkeJTPMaulcc9nDdfUfcnbpjFVwJJuv5Vc5_0aMSlPw4IKY_Wi79VlnW9YqD5V1JqG38clHjpEcKpxJVBeLGhZk/s1600/england+2011.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFjKcBhnLolpPFIj_Zk6Mf7VZykkosCMk4xyxGVCm-lVT5pN3lvHfKGkeJTPMaulcc9nDdfUfcnbpjFVwJJuv5Vc5_0aMSlPw4IKY_Wi79VlnW9YqD5V1JqG38clHjpEcKpxJVBeLGhZk/s640/england+2011.png" width="640" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">I would be stunned if all this plays out as above, but some interesting questions are popping out. Some of the points allotted to bottom teams will end on the accounts of top teams, so disparity will probably be larger than shown. We'll see if 87 points will be enough for the title and 39 good enough not to get relegated. We'll see how fewer draws, if any, we'll get; since prediction is 1055 points aggregate for the season. That is, only 7,46 % of lost points or around 85 tie games. Three year average for Premier League is a little less than 100 per year.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Here are the others:</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFdX14kJjtSYVOIXXvT5nk4D0CWb5c-NUGwu-zoK1Y_n93fjrGxr9nJ-99TzE9zA4MQqU0UJCzXtZAopdQajtfXlF1z25bibQqPVJrKf3uYf__ytqmeqPikFAEwQroaolgSjpa9eB5uYY/s1600/germany+2011.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFdX14kJjtSYVOIXXvT5nk4D0CWb5c-NUGwu-zoK1Y_n93fjrGxr9nJ-99TzE9zA4MQqU0UJCzXtZAopdQajtfXlF1z25bibQqPVJrKf3uYf__ytqmeqPikFAEwQroaolgSjpa9eB5uYY/s640/germany+2011.png" width="640" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Blue corrective points for Freiburg and Mainz indicate that it is not average but last season achievement, since they played in second league previous years. Also, like in the above case of Blackpool, correction for promoted teams with no history in first league ( in this table, last three ) is 0.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">So title goes to Bayern and the cut off for relegation will be 35 points. Dynamics of the season as predicted is pretty much in line with previous years, 75 to 80 draws.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4RJeQff1QYOAsn-YfGtDVQu2h3U7hKquSnPrPWmQJmiP8JMKVOfYj39C37sQxt0PXgK-USj-SJ8nzQaRQxsRwykB-FI4W-ModXlRFs5B1dRnAt2BguYWYHsgRw_PukLrSYU16d5fJZaU/s1600/italy+2011.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4RJeQff1QYOAsn-YfGtDVQu2h3U7hKquSnPrPWmQJmiP8JMKVOfYj39C37sQxt0PXgK-USj-SJ8nzQaRQxsRwykB-FI4W-ModXlRFs5B1dRnAt2BguYWYHsgRw_PukLrSYU16d5fJZaU/s640/italy+2011.png" width="640" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">For Calcio, things will remain mostly the same. Around 100 draws, get over 80 points and title is yours, don't get over 40 and it's Seria B for you.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">And, last but not least:</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnNla2Okv2qQlr7EuspsFJfWLsOUZ47-OgamANpMVgrShMggKBuPX4ApcnE8Iy3Co70Maj2Jfkx3Vmlq3WY8ult4vwA0HmsACDlpLzGpNL1fYesnEt4wTCndIeg9iuwO3AS-KVvha3kGY/s1600/spain+2011.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnNla2Okv2qQlr7EuspsFJfWLsOUZ47-OgamANpMVgrShMggKBuPX4ApcnE8Iy3Co70Maj2Jfkx3Vmlq3WY8ult4vwA0HmsACDlpLzGpNL1fYesnEt4wTCndIeg9iuwO3AS-KVvha3kGY/s640/spain+2011.png" width="640" /></a></div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
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</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Fewer tie games next year, almost 90 points for the title and above 40 points to avoid Liga Secunda.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">And, that is it. This method shows good results in retrospect and now it's time for the test drive. There are visible flaws since we treat every league the same, but in many ways they are very alike. Each has one or two ultra dominant teams with few dark horses in wait. These are not exporter leagues; very few outstanding players play outside their country and if they do, they do so in some of the leagues mentioned ( Ballack, Luca Toni …). Since creation of UEFA Champions league in 1992, only three teams won that are not from one of these four leagues ( 3 out of 19 ), which speaks of superior quality of competition. And so on.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">Now, all we have to do is wait for the summer of 2011 to see how horribly wrong these predictions were.</div><div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;"><br />
</div>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-58017441871956001482010-06-21T11:47:00.000-07:002010-08-17T09:10:24.579-07:00Die Angst des Tormanns beim Elfmeter or The Goalie's Anxiety at the Penalty Kick ( Fine, but bizarre movie )Only he can touch the ball with his hands; he is the only player confined in limited space and he's protected by the offside rule. Only for him applies: the less contact with the ball, the better. The lion's share of he's value is in his team's quality and skill. For him defense must start on the opponents half . If the ball reaches his 10 yard perimeter it's usually to late.<br />
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Goalkeeper, the one with the ugliest jersey on the field.<br />
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I'll try to explain quick and easy method of rating goalkeepers seasons. It can be used in retrospect on some lustrous and pictorial characters like Jose Luis Chilavert and Rene Higuita, and even further in the past. Maybe Peter Shilton or Lev Yashin, if we'd had data.<br />
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What is the point of the game? To score a goal and not to allow one. If you somehow allow a few, isn't it easier to digest 2 or 3 from Manchester United then from Portsmouth? Yes, it is. There is no excuse for a triplet from Pompey.<br />
The easiest way is to rate the pain relatively to opponents table position. So...<br />
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<span style="color: #0099ff;"><b>Goal conceded </b></span><b>X </b><span style="color: #ff3333;"><b>Team's position </b></span><b> = </b><span style="color: #944794;"><b>Goal stress value</b></span><br />
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Fewer goals from bottom feeders equals better defense, better goalkeeper, better team and better final rank.<br />
This method can also show why some guys are a treasure and some... well, not so much.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheT8X4yL3O3h7fGMkC8vwZbm2G-cZvofn160pmD0NccawxtrPTNjA53jWih9QhGJIXaqWqKgXzuRL6OJ2i8G2v1SSce5nJ3Zk3zK9jIqp2NCMorvShtqaIEpQyEFg7sorfvT7lKOzOvhc/s1600/chech.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="477" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheT8X4yL3O3h7fGMkC8vwZbm2G-cZvofn160pmD0NccawxtrPTNjA53jWih9QhGJIXaqWqKgXzuRL6OJ2i8G2v1SSce5nJ3Zk3zK9jIqp2NCMorvShtqaIEpQyEFg7sorfvT7lKOzOvhc/s640/chech.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />
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Games painted in green are victories, yellow ones are draws, reds are losses. Games that are not in color are the games played by substitute goalkeepers. We count only goals allowed, multiply the number of goals with the number of team's position ( X 3 for Arsenal's goal, X 20 Portsmouth's ) and in the bottom line we get the sum of "pain points". Divide the points with number of games. Finally, we get the average value for the goals. Their "weight". In this case, smaller is better. Plainly, on average, to score a goal against Petr Cech you have to play like Liverpool ( 7,32 points = 7th place team ). To score a goal against David James, play like Bolton, you'll be fine.<br />
Unfortunately for Portsmouth, substitutes played only 13 games last year.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR4qt2oLTejlXxNcTxPoM4K661qriKKM4J5k7ccefN44UrKa3RiFGMbSeQBwN_2W4IvEQBXpAuZ-hCGPQU8JtANYsnn7x4UpWM0pM_rl2EDxLiVkLhRyyPhpCnWjwdhIQGU4gXskkw8ag/s1600/james.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="477" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR4qt2oLTejlXxNcTxPoM4K661qriKKM4J5k7ccefN44UrKa3RiFGMbSeQBwN_2W4IvEQBXpAuZ-hCGPQU8JtANYsnn7x4UpWM0pM_rl2EDxLiVkLhRyyPhpCnWjwdhIQGU4gXskkw8ag/s640/james.png" width="640" /></a></div>Goranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04288839053472522135noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7893208812566919011.post-52738784792735568092010-06-20T02:53:00.000-07:002010-08-18T12:49:37.499-07:00Let's begin<div lang="en-US"><span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;">One of the great mysteries in soccer is how to grade individual performance. Standard newspaper box score is very lite on data. Scoring, booking and substitutions. <span style="font-weight: normal;">That's it.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><br />
</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;">Let's try something.</span></div><div lang="en-US"><span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div lang="en-US"><span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;">Take the <b>goals</b> player scored during the season, add them to the team <span style="font-weight: normal;">points</span> accumulated through <b>wins</b> and <b>draws </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">plus all the positive </span><b>shutouts </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">(clean sheets). Subtract </span><b>red cards </b><span style="font-weight: normal;">and negative </span><b>shutouts</b><span style="font-weight: normal;">, cases when team lost a game without scoring a goal, and divide everything with the number of meaningful games played. That means only effective time on the pitch, not late substitutions or similar situations. Something like counting wins and saves in baseball for pitchers. If you come in to play with 3 goals ahead and your team wins a game eventually, you are not credited with a win but the player whom you relieved. It looks like this:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><br />
</span></span></div><div lang="en-US"><span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><b> ( </b><span style="color: #5c8526;"><b>goals + ( wins x 3 ) + draws + shutout </b></span><b>) - ( </b><span style="color: #ff3333;"><b>red card + shutout</b></span><b> ) / games = points</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><b><br />
</b></span></div><span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Ideally, in the league with 20 teams, maximum points would be 5. If someone played all 38 games, scored in every game and his team won all the matches and never conceded a single goal, that super player would be assigned 5 points. On the other end of the spectrum, s</span></span>ubstitute level player like, for example, Steve Finnan; good and reliable player with adequate production on averige team, would be graded around 1. Good season is around 2, great around 3 points. MVP season is around 4. Above 4 is once in a lifetime achievement.</span><br />
<div lang="en-US" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;">This method strictly looks at how a player affects the bottom line: the scoreboard. It fits nicely in the 0 to 5 scale for better comprehension and is the most useful measurement available for past games. With this method we can grade Maradona's seasons or Pele's. It's not perfect, of course, but it can give us pretty good picture of the past in the absence of any other extensive source of data.</span><br />
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</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;">Next thing we can produce out of historical data is something similar to Win Shares in baseball. Since we're not blessed with abundance of data baseball or basketball produces, our poor man's version goes like this:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><b> ( ( ( wins x 3 ) + draws ) x teams points count ) / sum of all points awarded to players </b></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;">( win + tie column )</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><b><br />
</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><b> </b><i> In table below wins are already multiplied by 3</i> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><b><br />
</b></span></div><div lang="en-US" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;">Witch gives us ,basically, each player's contribution for the season expressed in number of points. 3 points WS means that player was good for one straight team victory. And that is your average player, in a range between 2 to 3 points. That's Steve Finnan ( sorry Steve but those are the numbers. Better luck next year ).</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;">In detail:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><b>( wins x 3 ) + draws </b>- For every game the player participated in, we award him a appropriate number of points ( win = 3, draw = 1, loss = 0 ) and then we sum the points for the season</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><b>x teams points count </b>-<b> </b>Then we multiply player's points with points team gathered in the season ( for Arsenal 75 last season )</span><br />
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</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><b>/sum of all points awarded to players </b></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;">( win + tie columns ) - Finally, we divide above number with the sum of points for all the players who got even a single point in the season ( sum of win and tie columns in table below ). The number should be around 10 times team points ( 750 )</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"><br />
</span></span></span></div><div lang="en-US" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;">Sometimes red card reduces number of players per match, ergo points are not divided among all 10 players. Ahem... 10. Yes, we don't count goalkeepers. They fall under different set of rules but about that in future posts.</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;">One caveat though. Small sample size. Very rare are the players who can play all 38 games of the regular season and even then, 38 games are not enough of a number to draw anything certain out of it. But 38 is what we have. Cut off is set on 2/3 of the season i.e. 26 games. Any number below, in my opinion, is to much distorted with biases and luck. </span> <br />
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</span></div><div lang="en-US" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"> To demonstrate; Arsenal's season 2009/10</span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: "Arial", sans-serif;"> And some of the last season's all stars</span><br />
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